A horse race is a contest of speed between Thoroughbreds (racehorses that are ridden by jockeys) or Standardbreds (racehorses that pull sulkies and their drivers). Regardless of the type of horse, all racehorses must be able to run at high speeds for long distances. The sport is widely popular around the world and generates huge sums of money for participants, spectators, and betting companies. Despite the changes in technology and regulation over the years, its basic concept remains unchanged: The horse that crosses the finish line first is declared the winner.
While horses are naturally inclined to move fast and joyfully in the wild, winning a race requires a different mindset. A successful race is about surviving the many hazards and obstacles that can be encountered, not simply running fast to avoid them. Likewise, the classic succession “horse race” pits two or more senior-level executives against each other in a battle over performance with the goal of choosing the company’s next leader. Although some board members and governance observers are uncomfortable with this overt competition, the horse race strategy has proven remarkably effective at identifying outstanding leaders at companies such as General Electric, Procter & Gamble, and GlaxoSmithKline.
As the 2020 presidential election draws to a close, we’re hearing about a dirty phrase: “horse race journalism.” This term refers to political coverage that treats minor updates in polling as play-by-play announcer calls. It’s a common approach to politics, but it can have serious consequences for voters and candidates.
For example, quick polls that aren’t thoroughly vetted can give candidates false hope and distort public opinion. They also distract from the real issues facing voters and can cause them to lose interest in a candidate. Worse, this kind of reporting often obscures important trends and can lead to false predictions.
The good news is that there are ways to improve horse race journalism. One way is to reduce the prominence of quick, shallow polling and focus more on detailed analysis. Another is to incorporate more data from different sources into the reports. And still another is to use probabilistic forecasting to more accurately predict a candidate’s chances of winning.
These strategies can help reduce the negative effects of horse race reporting. But they must be combined with other efforts, including giving novel or unconventional candidates a chance to win. In addition, it is crucial to raise awareness about the need for transparency in campaign finance and to educate voters about how they can help keep the press accountable.
Updated Oct. 23, 2023
When journalists cover an election by focusing primarily on who’s ahead and behind instead of policy issues, voters, candidates and the press itself suffer, according to research. This collection of studies explores the causes and consequences of this type of coverage, which we call horse race journalism. It includes studies of third-party political candidates, probabilistic forecasting, and TV news coverage of the presidential race.
